presidential election

Economic Voting and Presidential Elections: An Assessment of Validity and Endogeneity

We assess the retrospective and prospective economic survey questions by empirically examining the 1996 to 2008 TEDS presidential election surveys. We discuss which question is more appropriate in determining economic voting. Because the social economic assessment questions specify a time frame, they generate the validity problem when asked after the elected president has taken office. This problem is particularly severe for retrospective economic assessment.

Using National Surveys to Estimate Local Public Opinions: An Application of Bayesian Multilevel Regression Model with Post-stratification

Survey research in Taiwan almost always focuses on studying public opinion in the national level. Due to the potential small n problem for less populous sub-geographic units, scholars have not utilized national survey data to estimate public opinions in any local level (e.g., county, town, or village). To overcome this sample size limitation, we use a method combining the multilevel modeling approach with the population information for post-stratification.

Media Issue, Political Events and the Dynamics of Public Opinion: The Case of the Taiwanese Presidential Election in the year 2000

This essay seeks to explore how the issues and events reported by newspapers affect the image of candidates, and then how the image of candidates affects their popular supports in Taiwanese presidential election in the year 2000. The content analysis of issues and events are conducted to collect time-series aggregate data, and the linear regressions are applied to estimate the relations between issues, events, and candidates’ images. Therefore, this paper presents the effects of candidates’ images by newspapers by identifying the dynamics of mass support from polls.

Subscribe to RSS - presidential election