probability vote model

The Influence of Third-Way Policy in 2000 Taiwan Presidential Election: An Application of Median Voter Theorem

This paper based on A. Downs’ Median Voter Theorem, explores Chen Shui-Bian’s Third-way policy in unification-independence issue during the 2000 presidential election. The character of the empirical framework, based on the probability voter model proposed by Adams and Merrill (1999), is to incorporate both policies’ proximal and directional effects and to integrate the non-policy influence into the electoral decision. According to the Conditional Logit analysis, the paper has the flowing observations.

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